BAFTA Odds & Predictions Deep Dive: Big money still on the table in Oscars craft categories
Will the European vote change the Oscar race?
The BAFTAs are fast approaching, and with sportsbooks both under- and overestimating key contenders, the ripple effects across the Oscars betting markets could be significant.
In this episode of Lights Camera What’s the Action?, we deliver a comprehensive BAFTA betting deep dive, analysing the current positioning of Sentimental Value, Hamnet, Sinners and One Battle After Another, and assessing where European voting influence may trigger genuine awards-season upsets.
Sinners will underperform: Where best to take advantage and profitParticular attention is paid to how Sinners is likely to perform with BAFTA voters, alongside what may be the single biggest pricing mistake currently sitting in the sportsbooks. Our analysis outlines how disciplined punters could extract up to +900% profit on turnover if markets correct as expected.
Massive sportsbook odds mispricing spells big betting opportunity The Professor also unpacks the often misunderstood dynamics of Best Casting, while awards analyst Max Renn identifies emerging value in the wide open Best Cinematography and Best Film Editing races — two craft categories where the current Oscars odds remain fluid.
We also examine the ultra-tight Best Supporting Actress contest between Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Teyana Taylor and Wunmi Mosaku, a race that could materially impact Best Actress betting sentiment as the season progresses.
American documentary predicted to miss outElsewhere, we explain why The Perfect Neighbor may be more vulnerable than the market suggests in Best Documentary, outline a bullish position in BAFTA Original Screenplay, and deliver fresh reviews of Marty Supreme, Train Dreams and The Secret Agent, including their true Best Picture odds and broader Academy Awards win chances.
For listeners tracking entertainment awards, BAFTA betting, and the evolving Oscars betting landscape, this episode provides a clear, data-driven roadmap to where the real value currently sits.
BAFTA and Oscars Expert Betting Tips
The Professor98th Academy Awards - Best Documentary Short - All the Empty RoomsA frontrunner that has accelerated the gap between first and second, All the Empty Rooms can be backed with strong conviction. Odds for this documentary short should be much shorter.
$1.80 Sportsbet
98th Academy Awards - Best Cinematography - Train Dreams and One Battle After AnotherCounting on Sinners to lose BAFTA for Best Cinematography, which further opens the door for these two challengers.
Train Dreams $5
One Battle After Another $2.62
79th British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) 2026 - Best Casting - Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another and I SwearWith credit to Joyce Eng, one of the finest entertainment predictors in the land, BAFTA Best Casting is driven by two criteria:
New talent (Rising Star)
A win in any acting category
The last six years, this winning combination has a 100% strike rate:
2025 (78th Awards): Anora (Casting: Sean Baker and Samantha Quan) — Mikey Madison won Best Leading Actress.
2024 (77th Awards): The Holdovers (Casting: Susan Shopmaker) — Da'Vine Joy Randolph won Best Supporting Actress.
2023 (76th Awards): Elvis (Casting: Nikki Barrett and Denise Chamian) — Austin Butler won Best Actor.
2022 (75th Awards): West Side Story (Casting: Cindy Tolan) — Ariana DeBose won Best Supporting Actress.
2021 (74th Awards): Rocks (Casting: Lucy Pardee) — Bukky Bakray won the EE Rising Star Award (voted for by the public).
2020 (73rd Awards): Joker (Casting: Shayna Markowitz) — Joaquin Phoenix won Best Actor.
If Sinners wins Casting, who wins acting? Based on probability, it is looking like a donut for acting prizes:
Wunmi Mosaku is 3rd line betting favourite to win
Michael B. Jordan is 4th
Excluding Sentimental Value, which I am not supporting, the three in the mix are:
Marty Supreme - highly likely Best Actor win, with newcomer Odessa A'zion
I Swear - British, highly likely Rising Star, tempered by an unlikely acting win
One Battle After Another - potential Rising Star win, with Teyana Taylor in a coin toss win for Best Supporting Actress, Benicio Del Toro and Sean Penn in the frame for Best Supporting Actor. All combining to star in the film most likely to win Best Film
In particular, Marty Supreme represents one of the largest betting odds mistakes I have seen this season. High conviction either of these three win.
I Swear $3.25 Neds
Marty Supreme $10 Neds
One Battle After Another $5 Neds
79th British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) 2026 - Best Documentary - Mr Nobody Against Putin, 2000 Meters to Andriivka and Apocalypse in the TropicsThe Perfect Neighbor has so far dominated documentary wins this awards season. Perhaps this is the American doco’s first misstep.
The betting angle is that perhaps Europeans will cast their vote outside of the very American documentary, and choose instead something closer to home, and something politically relevant via Apocalypse in the Tropics.
Mr Nobody Against Putin $2.10 Bet365
2000 Meters to Andriivka $13 Bet365
Apocalypse in the Tropics $13 Bet365
79th British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) 2026 - Best Film Editing - F1BAFTA Editing wins including Mad Max, Baby Driver, No Time To Die, Ford v Ferrari are enough evidence to back F1 with high conviction.
$2.10 Bet365
79th British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) 2026 - Best Production Design - HamnetBullish on the prospects that the Brits will award Hamnet with one BAFTA trophy after Jessie Buckley. It’s a longshot worth playing, with big odds to upset hot favourite Frankenstein.
$9 Neds
79th British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) 2026 - Best Cinematography - Train Dreams and One Battle After AnotherBetting against Sinners, which hasn’t won a major cinematography precursor.
Instead, look to two challengers.
First, One Battle After Another, which recently Michael Bauman won the 70th British Society of Cinematographers (BSC) award for Best Cinematography in a Feature Film.
Second, Brazilian Adolpho Veloso won Best Cinematography at the 2026 Film Independent Spirit Awards as well as victory at last month’s Critics' Choice Awards.
One Battle After Another $3 Neds
Train Dreams $2.87 Neds
79th British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) 2026 - Best Supporting Actress - Teyana TaylorTwo factors support this betting thesis:
The so white criticiscm of BAFTA favours the African American
The strength of the film in which Taylor stars: One Battle After Another is the strong favourite to win Best Film
Medium conviction.
$2.30 Bet365
32nd Actor Awards - Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture - SinnersGenerous odds for Coogler’s team to mount a comeback after what looms to be a disappointing BAFTAs.
$2.37 Sportsbet
46th Golden Raspberry Awards - Worst Actor - Ice CubeWar of the Worlds is destined for Razzies glory, with Ice Cube central to its badness. Abel 'The Weeknd' Tesfaye is the nearest threat, however, Hurry Up Tomorrow didn’t match the mainstream newsfeed of the year’s worst lists.
Medium conviction bet.
$1.83 Sportsbet
46th Golden Raspberry Awards - Worst Screen Combo - Ice Cube & His Zoom Camera (War of the Worlds)A lower conviction here, where the bad reputation of AI via frontrunner All Seven Dwarfs (Snow White) could threaten another War of the Worlds win.
The way to approach this Razzies category: All Seven Artificial Dwarfs (Snow White) will win Worst Supporting Actor and Golden Raspberry voters will spread the love by anointing Ice Cube’s all time Zoom screenshot performance with more riches.
$2.88 Sportsbet
Max Renn
79th British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) 2026 - Inga Ibsdotter LilleaasSo far without a major precursor win, I’m backing the European vote will be enough for the sublime performance of Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas to be recognised.
$2.10 Neds
79th British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) 2026 - Best Film - HamnetAgain, back the Brits to favour their own. Hamnet for an upset win against the might of One Battle After Another.
$4 Bet365
79th British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) 2026 - Best Original Screenplay - Sentimental ValueThe best European film of 2025 should prevail with a win over Sinners.
$1.80 Bet365
79th British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) 2026 - Best Film Editing - F1All signs point to a win for the motor racing movie, which underscores one of my biggest play's of the season, with F1 to win the Academy Award in the same category.
High conviction.
$2.10 Neds
79th British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) 2026 - Best Casting - Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another and I SwearHigh conviction.
$2.10 Neds
Tony Coca-Cola
79th British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) 2026 - Best British Film - I SwearAn alternate challenger to Hamnet, at large odds. Worth a play.
$7 Bet365
79th British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) 2026 - Best Casting - I Swear, Marty SupremeBack the British flavour of I Swear, which is boosted by Robert Aramayo’s strong likelihood to win Rising Star. With an array of new faces and eclectic casting choices, Marty Supreme is underrated by betting markets.
I Swear $3.25 Neds
Marty Supreme $10 Neds
79th British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) 2026 - Best Cinematography - Train Dreams, One Battle After Another and SinnersHigh conviction that one of these three win. And with large enough odds, the correct proportionate staking will produce a profit.
One Battle After Another $2.63 Neds
Train Dreams $3.40 Bet365
Sinners $3 Bet365
79th British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) 2026 - Best Supporting Actress - Teyana Taylor and Inga Ibsdotter LilleaasIt’s very close between Taylor and Lilleaas. Fortunately, betting odds are large enough to bet on both actresses for a profitable outcome.
Teyana Taylor $2.38 Neds
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas $2.62 Neds
79th British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) 2026 - Best Documentary - Mr Nobody Against Putin, 2000 Meters to Andriivka and Apocalypse in the TropicsThe Professor and I are aligned on this betting angle: The Perfect Neighbor is vulnerable for its first loss of the major precursor season.
Mr Nobody Against Putin $2 Neds
2000 Meters to Andriivka $13 Neds
79th British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) 2026 - Best Foreign Film - It Was Just An AccidentA pushback against the outrageous Best Picture nomination snub of the Palme d'Or winner.
$23 Bet365
79th British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) 2026 - Best Original Score - One Battle After AnotherSurely the Brits will favour their own: Jonny Greenwood to spoil against the Sinners steamroller.
$8 Neds