Even though Giamatti and Gladstone did not salute, applying probabilistic thinking and the pursuit of value should be the rationale for entertainment awards betting.
Lessons learnt during season 4 Unfortunately the key information required to be able to conduct a review of our Oscar plays will never be available to us - the distribution of votes.
The difference between my negative POT result and a greater than 100% positive POT would have been Paul Giamatti and Lily Gladstone winning their categories. We can only guess as to how close the races were for Best Actor and Actress. I feel these were tight.
The lesson here is very simple and also a microcosm of my betting philosophy overall - continue to bet value propositions as they arise, particularly closer to game day.
Ask yourself - how likely is the outcome given the information you have right now? Is there clear value in the bet? Clarify the reasons for your decision. Commit to this rationale.