Oscars 2027 Predictions: Early Betting Guide, Odds and Value Picks

Because why not?

Here is the recklessly early form guide to the Oscars 2027 - and more importantly, how to approach this from a betting perspective rather than pretending any of this is remotely settled.

Before getting into it, a quick reminder of how this usually goes.

My early 2026 Oscar predictions, published on 1 April 2025, were… not great.

Best Picture went 2/10, Director 1/5, Actor 0/5, Actress 2/5, Supporting Actor 1/5, Supporting Actress 0/5. I went hard on After The Hunt, Deliver Me From Nowhere, Die My Love, The History Of Sound, and Ballad Of A Small Player, and got burnt badly. I also completely dismissed One Battle After Another after its early test screenings.

So abandon all hope ye who enter here…

The Odyssey - The Clear Early Leader

Right now, The Odyssey is the obvious early frontrunner across multiple categories - Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, probably Actor, and all the crafts.

Christopher Nolan, coming off Oppenheimer, delivering a large-scale epic is exactly the kind of project the Academy gravitates toward.

The one real question is how the fantastical elements land. The Harryhausen-style monsters are a genuine swing - if grounded effectively, it works. If not, it risks disconnecting audiences.

Dune: Part Three - The Sweeper Narrative

Dune: Part Three feels like the strongest challenger.

There is a very real possibility this becomes a Lord of the Rings: Return of the King-style sweeper, particularly in the craft categories. Villeneuve’s “it’s time” narrative is building - but again, this is an unseen film.

Project Hail Mary - The Only Release With Evidence

This remains the only contender with real data.

A 77 Metacritic score (after 54 reviews) suggests a Best Picture nomination is highly achievable.

But the challenge is longevity. Can it sustain momentum across the full awards season? (Nominations are over nine months away!) Bringing along Ryan Gosling for Actor and Lord Miller for Director feels maybe a bridge too far.

Wild Horse Nine - A Market Misread

The bookies have Wild Horse Nine sitting near the top of the market.

That looks like an overreaction.

Based on the trailer, Martin McDonagh’s tone appears far closer to Seven Psychopaths than The Banshees of Inisherin - more crime-driven, more comedic, and lacking in the gravitas typically required for a Best Picture winner.

It may still land nominations, but it is difficult to see it seriously contending for the win.

The Social Reckoning - a genuine top five contender

Aaron Sorkin is back with The Social Reckoning, about a Facebook whistleblower who exposed the social media juggernaut’s own knowledge of its harmful societal effects.

With Mikey Madison in the lead, and Jeremy Strong as Mark Zuckerberg, this looks like a genuine top five contender. Like it for nominations in Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay.

Being Heumann - strong Best Actress conviction for Ruth Madeley

Being Heumann, meanwhile, stands out as one of the most interesting early value plays. The film is a lock for Picture and Actress nominations, maybe even an Actress win for Ruth Madeley. Directed by Sian Heder (CODA), it’s based on the life of disability rights activist Judith Heumann, played by real spina bifida sufferer Ruth Madeley. If there was a market for Madeley now, I’d be jumping on immediately.

Cry To Heaven - Prestige and Scale

The latest from former fashion designer Tom Ford. Based on an Anne Rice novel set in 18th century Italy around the world of opera, it’s got a ridiculous cast: Nicholas Hoult, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Adele, Ciarán Hinds, George MacKay, Colin Firth, Paul Bettany. It’s no doubt gonna light up the critical crowd, so a Picture and Director nomination looks achievable.

Following Train Dreams, can Kwedar continue Oscar nominations favour?

Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing) returns with Saturn Return, a decade-spanning romance with Charles Melton and Rachel Brosnahan. The Academy really seems to like whatever Kwedar is selling (he co-wrote Train Dreams with Clint Bentley, who both co-wrote this also.) Hard to ignore that pedigree.

Sundance Breakouts: Josephine and The Invite

Josephine was the big hit of Sundance this year, winning both the Grand Jury Prize and the Audience Award. (The last film to win both was CODA. Before that, Minari.)

Currently at 86 Metacritic (14 reviews). Formally, it’s a little bit Nickel Boys, with the majority of the film shot from a first-person perspective (of an eight-year-old girl who witnesses a sexual assault.) Apparently a tough watch, but I like it for a Picture nomination, maybe even an Actress nomination for 9yo Mason Reeves.

Another Sundance breakout was Olivia Wilde’s The Invite. Perhaps an Adapted Screenplay nomination, and maybe 1-2 Acting nominations, at best. But looks too self-contained for a Picture nomination.

The Wider Field

Other potential players of note:.

• The Adventures Of Cliff Booth should be a contender somewhere. Tarantino consistently writes great supporting performances, so maybe Debicki for Supporting Actress? (How pissed must QT be that PTA now has three Oscars, and he’s only got two?)

• Artificial - I’m not getting sucked in on Artificial! Luca Guadagnino has burned me too many times before! But what a cast: Andrew Garfield, Monica Barbaro, Mark Rylance, Chris O’Dowd, Jason Schwartzman, Cooper Hoffman. And another highly topical premise. I’m keeping it out of all categories until convinced otherwise.

• Michael looks commercially strong but less awards-focused. I don’t think it will get a Picture nomination, though it should make quite a bit of money. The trailer, perhaps appropriately, looks very plastic, like a made-for-TV movie. (Fun fact: Tuddy in GoodFellas was played by Michael Jackson’s real-life manager Frank DiLeo.)

• Behemoth! - I’m not as sold on Tony Gilroy’s Behemoth! as others. The script is available online, and doesn’t read well at all. Very flat, very little actual drama. Maybe it needs a last-minute punch-up by Gareth Edwards.

• Primetime is essentially a dramatisation of the reality TV series How To Catch A Predator, with Robert Pattinson as the lead investigative journalist. With A24 behind it, it could be something.

• Possible Love, from Lee Chang-dong (2018’s Burning), will need a big festival splash for it to break through.

• Ink, directed by Danny Boyle, is based on a play about Rupert Murdoch buying, and then transforming, UK newspaper The Sun in the late 1960s. Much like Boyle’s similarly stage-y Steve Jobs, it could bring some Acting nominations, maybe Guy Pearce (as Murdoch) and Claire Foy.

• Can Disclosure Days squeeze in? Hard to ever bet against Spielberg, but I’m going to. And I’m going to regret saying that.

• The Bride! and Wuthering Heights appear less competitive overall. But I’m going with Oscar betting expert Max Renn’s assessment, and throwing Martin Clunes in for a Supporting Actor nomination.

International Film - The Key Pathway

Asghar Farhadi’s Parallel Tales is a certainty for an International Film nomination. I’d probably place it first for the win too. There’s always at least one international film snagging a Picture nomination – this is the horse I’m presently backing. Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All Of A Sudden would be my number two.

Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord is a domestic drama with Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve. While you can probably lock it in for the 2026 Palme d’Or right now (Cannes just adores him), my spies tell me that Mungiu (who doesn’t speak Norwegian) actually had a Norwegian co-director to deal with the actors, while he composed the frame. With two strong leads, perhaps this is Mungiu’s chance to land his first Oscar nomination in International Film.

Hirokazu Kore-eda brings us Sheep In The Box. It’s got a very Spielberg A.I. - type premise: family get a boy-robot to compensate for their recently-deceased child. Already acquired by Neon, you can pen in that International Film nomination now. Perhaps its sci-fi premise will help it play widely.

A wait and see for James Gray’s Paper Tiger

I remember predicting an acting nomination onslaught with James Gray’s Armageddon Time a few years back, but he just never seems to break through at the Oscars. Paper Tiger could finally bring Gray some recognition, but I’ll hold for now.

A watch on Kristen Stewart in Sontag 

Last year, I mentioned Kirsten Johnson’s Sontag, starring Kristen Stewart. Still no word about it; hopefully a fall festival premiere is coming. Really looking forward to this, but it actually might still be shooting, Boyhood-style.

Iñárritu’s big swing, is a Cruise Oscar campaign on the cards? 

And then there’s Digger, from Alejandro Iñárritu, with Tom Cruise in apparently heavy prosthetic make-up, and a brilliant supporting cast of Sandra Hüller, Jesse Plemons, John Goodman, Riz Ahmed, and Michael Stuhlbarg.

Early preview screenings have called the film absolutely chaotic. It seems like too big a swing to ignore. Let’s hope Goodman can finally land his first (!) ever Oscar nomination. (Fun fact: all seven of Iñárritu’s feature films have had at least one Oscar nomination.)

2027 Oscars Betting Odds & Market Watch

Best Picture - Early Oscars 2027 Predictions

If you’re looking at the Oscars betting market, predicted winners are underlined. At this stage, my early Best Picture nomination predictions are:

Being Heumann

Cry To Heaven

Digger

Dune: Part Three

Josephine

The Odyssey

Parallel Tales

Project Hail Mary

The Social Reckoning

Saturn Return

Oscar Best Director predictions - Early 2027 Predictions

The Best Director race, at this stage, is driven almost entirely by pedigree:

Asghar Farhadi - Parallel Tales

Tom Ford - Cry To Heaven

Christopher Nolan - The Odyssey

Denis Villeneuve - Dune: Part Three

Aaron Sorkin - The Social Reckoning

This is a classic early-cycle lineup - major auteurs, strong concepts, and a heavy reliance on reputation over finished films. Nolan and Villeneuve sit at the top based on scale and expectation, while Farhadi represents the international crossover threat.

Oscar Best Actor predictions -  Early 2027 Predictions

The Best Actor field is volatile, but early names are already forming:

Tom Cruise - Digger

Matt Damon - The Odyssey

Nicholas Hoult - Cry To Heaven

Charles Melton - Saturn Return

John Turturro - The Only Living Pickpocket In New York

Cruise is the wildcard here. Damon’s chances are closely tied to how dominant The Odyssey becomes, while Turturro could land his first ever Oscar nomination for the Sundance film The Only Living Pickpocket in New York. (Maybe more of a hope-diction, but maybe not, with Sony Pictures Classics behind it.)

Oscar Best Actress predictions -  Early 2027 Predictions

This is where early value may sit:

Sandra Hüller - Rose

Isabelle Huppert - Parallel Tales

Ruth Madeley - Being Heumann

Mikey Madison - The Social Reckoning

Kristen Stewart - Sontag

Ruth Madeley stands out immediately as a potential breakout. If Being Heumann lands, a bet on Madeley could become my early high conviction play of the season.

Oscar Best Supporting Actor predictions -  Early 2027 Predictions

Martin Clunes - Wuthering Heights

John Goodman - Digger

Guy Pearce - Ink

Jeremy Strong - The Social Reckoning

Channing Tatum - Josephine

Jeremy Strong and John Goodman feel like the strongest early signals here, depending on how their films land.

Oscar Best Supporting Actress predictions -  Early 2027 Predictions

This category is wide open:

Caitríona Balfe - A Long Winter

Catherine Deneuve - Parallel Tales

Claire Foy - Ink

Anne Hathaway - The Odyssey

Octavia Spencer - Death Of A Salesman

Veteran presence is strong here, and this could shift significantly once films are seen.

Final Verdict: Oscars 2027

At this stage, the race is led by:

• The Odyssey

• Dune: Part Three

• With Project Hail Mary as the only proven (though way too early) contender.

But the real betting value sits slightly beneath the surface. Films like Being Heumann, Josephine, Parallel Tales, and Saturn Return offer upside that is not yet fully priced in.

Because early Oscars betting is not about certainty.

It’s about being early.