What is the highest conviction bet of the Oscar season?

An Oscar win for Julianne Moore: Still attractive odds

Even at $1.50 or -200, The Debut leading actress represents value for a betting proposition that is actually north of 80% as a win probability.

The odds remain value, and the price will not last, especially when The Debut opens to the public in December.

Also, in the latest podcast episode, we dissect the Oscar nomination prospects for The Odyssey and La bola negra.

Three major films in the 2027 Oscars conversation are reviewed - The Invite, Digger and The Odyssey - and we assess their chances across the key Oscar categories.

Plus other hot Oscars betting topics:

• Can Olivia Wilde secure both an Actress and Director nominaton?

• Why could Matt Damon be a genuine Best Actor contender?

• Is La bola negra the Spanish epic that can challenge The Odyssey for the most Oscar nominations?

• And is Christopher Nolan really the Best Director bet everyone thinks he is?

Plus, we examine the expanded Golden Globes voting body and what 400–500 members could mean for awards season and the Oscars.

And don't miss Tony Coca-Cola's contrarian Best Supporting Actress betting take: Why everyone may be wrong about Kate O'Flynn's Oscar chances.

New 2027 Oscars bets predictions

The Professor

99th Academy Awards  - Best Actor - Matt Damon

Sasha Stone is mostly on the outer in the awards punditry circuit, however, I have long subscribed to three simple rules that the Awards Daily owner applies when assessing acting contenders:

1. Likeability of the movie

2. Likeability of the character in the movie

3. Likeability of the actor

In The Odyssey, Matt Damon successfully meets all three criteria.

This is not Damon’s best work. But it doesn’t matter. There are plenty of Oscar case studies in which an actor has won for inferior work.

The rising tide lifts all boats. The strongest boat in the Best Picture race currently is The Odyssey. And at generous odds, the veteran actor should be backed with medium confidence.

$5.00 Sportsbet

99th Academy Awards  - Best Actress - Julianne Moore

This is a game of patience. Load up as much as you can on the best bet of the Oscar season, and wait for your 50% return. No actress is coming close to knocking off Julianne Moore on Oscar Sunday in March 20207.

$1.50 Sportsbet

Max Renn

99th Academy Awards  - Best Actress - Julianne Moore 

Inde Navarrette is destined for a nomination, however, the Obsession star won’t challenge Julianne Moore for a win.

High conviction.

$1.50 Sportsbet

Tony Coca-Cola

99th Academy Awards  - Best Actor - Andrew Scott

Sportsbet have the Irish actor priced as equal favourite at $2.50. The market continues to underestimate the lead of Elsinore.

$4.75 Bet Right

99th Academy Awards  - Best Actress - Julianne Moore 

The Debut and its leading performance by Julianne Moore continues to generate mid-screening standing ovations. Betting odds are ridiculous and can be backed with high conviction.

$1.50 Sportsbet

99th Academy Awards  - Best Actress nomination - Sandra Hüller

Equally ridiculous in betting odds, and can be bet with high confidence.

$1.85 Bet Right

99th Academy Awards  - Best Supporting Actor - Paul Giamatti & Andrew Garfield

A play against Guitarricadelafuente, who I don’t believe is a real challenger. A duo bet on Giamatti and Garfield is a package that should deliver profits, with odds large enough to cover if the other loses. High conviction.

Paul Giamatti $4.50 Bet Right
Andrew Garfield $3.50 Sportsbet

99th Academy Awards  - Best Supporting Actress - Kate O’Flynn

As discussed in the previous podcast episode, Emmy winning Kate O’Flynn continues to be disrespected in betting markets. Medium conviction.

$23 Sportsbet