Godzilla vs The Little Corporal - a battle royale for the Visual Effects Academy Award

With too much enthusiasm for The Creator, there are 5 reasons why Godzilla Minus One and Napoleon are the two to get behind in this Oscar category.

#1 The mathematics and probability

According to reliable Oscars pundits Napoleon is top favourite to win this category, and this is part of the algorithm that feeds the weekly rankings that are published on X.

Godzilla Minus One is the current rankings leader, priced at fair 2-1 odds value. It is Napoleon, however, which is grossly underestimated by market makers at odds over 21-1.

As evidenced in the charts, the Ridley Scott picture is not as far back as the probability and odds indicate.

#2 The film that almost made the cut

Napoleon was horrible and ranked as one of the worst films I saw yesteryear.

However, my personal grievances don’t count, and bettors must put their own taste aside when it comes to awards analysis. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) voted with their feet: Ridley Scott’s portrayal of The Little Corporal captured three craft nominations in Visual Effects, Costume Design and Production Design.

Based on its overperformance in craft nominations, there is a school of thought that Napoleon was close to making the top ten Best Picture list. The favourable glow of feels like a Best Picture nomination should enhance Napoleon’s prospects to win this category.

#3 The killer crossover with Production Design

Credit to Mark Johnson from Awards Daily for this killer statistic: 20 of the last 23 winners for VFX were also nominated for Production Design.

Which title grabbed both a Visual Effects and Production Design nomination? There was only one: Napoleon.

#4 Back the passion

Never underestimate the passion, the momentum of Oscars contenders. When the voting tailwinds of Everything Everywhere All at Once and CODA peaked at the perfect time, it translated into Oscars glory.

When this Oscars nomination video of the Godzilla team went viral, its goodwill can be self-fulfilling. AMPAS may want to see such euphoria again and contribute by seeing the Japanese propel themselves to the winning stage.

#5 Bet against respect and superheroes

The Creator, which is equal favourite in betting markets, falls into the respect camp: it is admired, but it will not garner enough number one votes to translate into Best Visual Effects victory.

The other title to bet against is superhero fatigue, which was delightful to witness last year. This eliminates Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3.

Bet on them both with medium conviction to win Best Visual Effects.

Napoleon $21.00 Unibet
Godzilla Minus One $2.00 Sportsbet