S4E07 podcast: a betting cage match on who will win Best Documentary, plus how to profit from the weirdness of BAFTA

Reviews on Oscar contenders and fade outs The Eternal Memory and American Fiction, plus lots more.

We ramp up the betting frenzy with prognostications on the BAFTA Oscars consequences, and when to pull the trigger.

For best bets only, listen here:

Best bets

The Professor

96th Academy Awards - Best Documentary – Bobi Wine: The People's President

With this lengthy betting thesis published recently, Bobi Wine should rise into second betting line favourite by game day.

Underrated and mispriced by bookmakers, small conviction.

Small to medium conviction.

Bobi Wine: The People's President $15 Unibet or Bet365

96th Academy Awards - Best Visual Effects – Napoleon, Godzilla Minus One

Bet on the passion and potential euphoria for the Japanese team to win for their work on Godzilla Minus One.

While the statistics for Napleon cannot be denied.

Bet on the monster for medium conviction, bet on the The Little Corporal for small conviction.

Napoleon $21.00 Unibet

Godzilla Minus One $2.00 Sportsbet

96th Academy Awards - Best Adapted Screenplay – American Fiction

Medium conviction on American Fiction to be gifted the consolation prize.

This price is too big.

American Fiction $3.75 Bet365

Max Renn

96th Academy Awards - Best Documentary – Bobi Wine: The People's President

At least a 20% conviction for this fine documentary, and its probability of winning are better than the odds imply.

Small conviction.

Bobi Wine: The People's President $15 Unibet or Bet365

76th Directors Guild of America Awards, Best Director - Drama Series - Peter Hoar (The Last of Us - Long, Long Time)

This is a bet against Succession, with more heart than head on an episode that I loved.

Peter Hoar $2.87 Sportsbet

Tony Coca-Cola

76th Directors Guild of America Awards, Best Director – Documentaries - Mstyslav Chernov (20 Days in Mariupol)

At a bigger 2.50 odds when it opened, there is no way that DGA voters will not recognise the bravery and degree of difficulty of this filmmaking.

High conviction.

$1.71 Sportsbet

76th Directors Guild of America Awards, Best Director - Comedy Series - Bill Hader (Barry - wow)

Hader is 3 from 3 with the DGA, and although the final scene of the final episode could be a little too weird for some, this is worth a small conviction play.

$3.50 Sportsbet

77th British Academy Film Awards, Best Actress in a Leading Role - Sandra Huller & Carey Mulligan

Bet on BAFTA for weird choices, so the non favourites are the play. Medium conviction on a Huller victory.

Sandra Huller $3.50 Sportsbet
Carey Mulligan $23.00 Bet365

77th British Academy Film Awards, Best Actress in a Supporting Role - Emily Blunt, Sandra Huller & Claire Foy

Small conviction on these three options.

Sandra Huller $13 Unibet
Emily Blunt $10 Bet365
Claire Foy $41 Bet365

77th British Academy Film Awards, Outstanding British Film - The Zone of Interest

Small conviction

The Zone of Interest $3 Sportsbet
All of Us Strangers $6 Sportsbet  

96th Academy Awards - Best Documentary – Best Documentary – Bobi Wine: The People's President multi extravaganza

Juice the odds by combining a Bobi Wine documentary win with these other 7 certainties

Best Documentary – Bobi Wine: The People's President 8 leg multi, small conviction $19.52 TAB

1. Nolan director

2. RDG supporting actor

3. Randolph supporting actor

4. Oppenheimer cinematography

5. Oppenheimer sound

6. Oppenheimer editing

7. Barbie production design
   

96th Academy Awards – Best Visual Effects  – Napoleon monster multi

Also use the same 7 legs mentioned above, the odds are much juicier at $28.20

Small conviction

Best Visual Effects – Napoleon multi $28.20 TAB