Poor Barbie: a contrarian Production Design bet for the Oscars plus juicy odds at the Screen Actors Guild Awards
A strong BAFTAs by Poor Things illuminates a SAG and Oscars betting angle.
30th Screen Actors Guild Awards - Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role - Emma Stone
It’s lights out for Sandra Huller’s Academy Award Best Actress campaign, with the Anatomy of a Fall lead missing a BAFTA win, and not nominated for a SAG.
Meanwhile, Lily Gladstone’s campaign machine is undeniably huge. But it’s beginning to show spluttering signs, compounded by the ascendance of Emma Stone. Gladstone was not in the BAFTA race, but Stone receives the publicity bump on the back of today’s BAFTA win.
At this stage of the race the eventual winner of the Academy Award is no longer a coin toss. A SAG victory by Stone will extinguish the hope for Gladstone, where 8 of the last 10 SAG Actress winners also won the Oscar.
Sportsbet have not correctly priced Emma Stone for a Screen Actors Guild win. The Poor Things lead is at least a 55-60% probability to win. Mispricing spells an opportunity with medium to high conviction.
$2.70 Sportsbet - Emma Stone
96th Academy Awards - Best Production Design – Poor Things
The path of BAFTA breadcrumbs to an Oscars win Production Design is strong. Since the rule changes of 2021, two of the last two years of a BAFTA win in Production Design have matched with an Oscar win. Go back 10 years, it is 60%.
This is a bet against Barbie, which has had a lackluster craft awards season. Greta Gerwig’s doll movie was shut out at the Art Director Guild awards, and also lost Production Design at the BAFTA Awards. The pink team are on the decline, and bookmakers have not adjusted.
A Poor Things Production Design win is a 40% probability or 2.50-1 odds to win. Priced at 3-1 on TAB, this is too big and must be consumed with haste.
Medium conviction.
$3.00 TAB - Poor Things