S4E08 podcast: a fill up of 10 craft betting Oscars angles
All five Academy Awards contenders for Documentary Short are put under the betting microscope, plus divided opinion presents opportunity across the craft categories.
We review American Fiction and The Zone of Interest, and discuss the ramifications of the Screen Actor Guild Awards for the prospects of Cillian Murphy, Paul Giamatti, Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone.
For best bets only, listen here:
Best bets
The Professor
96th Academy Awards - Best Make Up – Maestro
A category that will either go to Maestro or Poor Things, but it looks like the former will be Bradley Cooper’s solitary win for the night.
Medium conviction.
Maestro $1.70 TAB
96th Academy Awards - Best Adapted Screenplay – American Fiction
In the screenplay category, American Fiction has now beaten Oppenheimer at the Critics' Choice Movie Awards and BAFTAs. That’s a signal you can trust. The prospects of Barbie snagging this are misguided by Gerwig snub believers.
Medium to high conviction.
American Fiction $2.30 Bet Right
96th Academy Awards - Best Song – I'm Just Ken
Billie Eilish has already won, and the meme worthy Ken song could be propelled by its social media tailwinds.
Small conviction.
American Fiction $5.50 Bet365
Max Renn
96th Academy Awards - Best Actress – Lily Gladstone
Load up: the SAG 8/10 Oscars correlation is too strong to ignore. Gladstone’s SAG winning speech was strong and well received in the room.
High conviction.
Lily Gladstone $2.70 Bet Right
96th Academy Awards - Best Adapted Screenplay – Barbie
Disagree with The Professor, and the odds here are too big. This could be the opportunity for AMPAS voters to right the wrong of Greta Gerwig’s Best Director snub.
Medium conviction.
Barbie $8.00 Bet365
96th Academy Awards - Best Production Design – Barbie
The strength of the production design is worth a shot.
Small conviction.
Barbie $2.50
Tony Coca-Cola
96th Academy Awards - Best Actress – Lily Gladstone
Echoing Max’s best bet, this is a strong play.
Medium to high conviction.
Lily Gladstone $2.70 Bet Right
96th Academy Awards - Best Adapted Screenplay – American Fiction & Barbie
The odds for Cord Jefferson’s screenplay are too big and can be backed with high conviction.
Barbie could happen, small conviction.
American Fiction $2.30 Bet Right
Barbie $8.00 Bet365
96th Academy Awards - Best Original Screenplay – Past Lives
Celine Song’s first feature is beloved and is likely to perform strongly at the Independent Spirit Awards, which could influence the Oscars voting period that is still open.
Small conviction.
Past Lives $13 Unibet
96th Academy Awards - Best Costume Design – Barbie
Barbie $2.30 TAB
96th Academy Awards - Best Sound – The Zone of Interest
Small conviction.
The Zone of Interest $3.15 Bet right
96th Academy Awards - Best Visual Effects – The Creator
Very bullish and increasing my commitment here.
The Creator $2.25 Sportsbet
96th Academy Awards - Best Documentary Short – The Last Repair Shop & The Barber of Little Rock
Small conviction.
The Last Repair Shop $3.25 Unibet
The Barber of Little Rock $67 Bet right