The Zone of Betting Introspection: what worked, what didn’t during the awards season of 2024 (part 1)
On the psychology couch, betting analyst Tony Coca-Cola self-diagnoses what he needs to start, stop and continue doing in preparation for the next awards season
Start I need to spend more money on coverage at the Oscars.
We’ve been doing this podcast for four years. The first three years, I spent more, my coverage was extensive, and my POTs were strong (109%, 37%, 38%.)
This year, I spent about half of what I usually do, I didn’t get coverage on everything I would’ve liked (partly because bookie odds were highly conservative from the start), and my profit on turnover (POT) was the smallest of the four years: 14%.
So next year, I’m going back to my original gameplan of spend, spend, spend and cover, cover, cover.
StopI need to stop compiling so many multis!
I’ve only hit about 3-4 big multis (8+ legs) over the past four years, with payouts not large enough to even cover my total multi outlay.
I would have been better off waiting until the final week, compiling odds of 5-7, and just laying more on.
Someone please remind me of this in November!
Continue I will continue betting on the smaller awards.
Over the past 2-3 years, the bookies have been paying much closer attention to their Oscar markets. However, they still don’t know what’s going on at other film award shows, like the Cannes FF’s Palme D’Or, Indy Spirits, and MTV Movie Awards. My POTs for these three this year were respectively 440%, 161% and 105%. So I’ll continue to keep a close eye on the form around these, to build up some early bank, and boost my overall season POT.
Looking back, it’s been a somewhat anti-climactic year. We all thought Frontrunner Fever would strike Oppenheimer at some point, but no challenger stood up.
Same with Downey Jr and Randolph; the Golden Globes called the tune early, and everyone else dutifully followed.
The Murphy Actor win reminds me of McDormand’s Actress win for Nomadland. Nomadland was a lock for Picture from its September premiere, but Actress was (of course) still volatile, with Davis and Mulligan the frontrunners. But Nomadland IS McDormand, so it makes complete sense that she’d also win. Similarly, Oppenheimer IS Murphy, so once Oppenheimer was locked for Picture, his win was academic.