Oscars Betting Odds & Golden Globes Shifts: New Value Emerges

Golden Globes Nominations Just Shook Up the Oscars 2026 Race — Here’s What the Betting Markets Are Missing

The Golden Globes nominations have triggered the first major reset of the Oscars 2026 betting markets.

With several expected frontrunners underwhelming and a handful of quieter contenders gaining momentum, the race has entered a phase where probability now matters more than perception.

In this episode, we analyse how the Golden Globes have reshaped the awards landscape — identifying which narratives are strengthening, which are stalling, and where betting markets have yet to fully adjust.

This is not about headline predictions. It’s about understanding market movement, momentum, and value before consensus forms.

Two Films Under the Microscope: Frankenstein and If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

This episode also takes a closer look at two of the most discussed contenders of the season: Frankenstein and Rose Byrne’s Best Actress Oscar contention in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.

Both films have generated meaningful conversation, but for different reasons:

• One driven by ambition and scale

• The other by intimacy and performance

The key question for Oscars betting markets is not whether these films are “good,” but whether they possess the category breadth and industry support required to translate acclaim into nominations — and potentially wins.

Understanding this distinction is critical when assessing true Oscar potential versus critical enthusiasm.

Best Actress: Who Can Challenge Jessie Buckley?

While Jessie Buckley has emerged as the early betting favourite, Golden Globes nominations have complicated the picture rather than clarified it. Rose Byrne has emerged as a strong second line challenger through:

• Underperformance by Hamnet so far

• High likeability factor

• Career narrative

Best Actress betting markets are especially prone to overreaction — both positive and negative — making this category one of the most strategically complex for bettors.

The biggest threat to the frontrunner may not be the loudest challenger, but the one attached to a film whose broader awards support is quietly solidifying.

Byrne believers are advised to bet now. The Australian actress is a strong contender to win the Golden Globe next month. If Byrne wins, the If I Had Legs I’d Kick You star’s odds will shorten significantly.

Golden Globes Longshots: Where Value Often Emerges

Every year, the Golden Globes produce at least one result that appears shocking on paper but makes sense in context.

International appeal, a voting body still forming shape and category-specific voting quirks regularly combine to elevate unexpected contenders. For bettors, the key is identifying which longshots are plausible, not merely surprising.

This season’s nominations have surfaced a number of strong possibilities at big betting odds.

Why We Look at This Differently

The goal isn’t to be right in March. It’s to understand where momentum is forming in December. It’s to understand who and what is underrated and overrated by Oscar betting markets.

Oscars & Golden Globes Expert Betting Tips

The Professor

98th Academy Awards  - Best Picture nomination - No Other Choice

It’s been an uneven fortnight for Wicked: For Good, Avatar: Fire and Ash and Jay Kelly. All three films were underwhelming in their Golden Globes nomination recognition. This opens the slot for one to three other titles to sneak in and grab a position in the Oscar Best Picture ten.

No Other Choice continues to be underrated by betting markets and can be be backed with low to medium conviction.

$3.50 TAB

98th Academy Awards  - Best Supporting Actress - Teyana Taylor 

In the last few years at the Oscars, we’ve been reminded a stronger Best Picture contender is like the rising tide lifting all boats. In this metaphor, a stronger Best Picture contender raises the win probability of its performers.

Consider these recent examples, where the winner was actually the second line betting favourite on Oscar Monday:

• Emma Stone over Lilly Gladstone (betting odds favourite) - Poor Things was stronger than Killers of the Flower Moon

• Anthony Hopkins over Chadwick Boseman (hot favourite) - The Father over Ma Rainey Black Bottom, which did not have a Best Picture nomination

• Mikey Madison over Demi Moore (betting odds favourite) - Anora over The Substance

Whoever is starring in the stronger Best Picture contender mostly progresses to an acting win.

Teyana Taylor fits this bill, and in the toughest acting category this season, is a medium conviction bet.

$2.20 Bet365

98th Academy Awards  - Best Animated Feature  - KPop Demon Hunters

The global phenomenon is also a slam dunk to win Best Song.

Ranked a win probability 80%, betting odds should be $1.25, so the betting edge must be consumed with high conviction.

$1.57 Sportsbet

83rd Golden Globe Awards  - Film - Best Screenplay - One Battle After Another, It Was Just An Accident

High conviction play that either film wins this award. Note the predictive quality of the screenplay category for Oscar betting breadcrumbs. According to Mark Johnson at AwardsWatch, in the past 54 years, 47 Oscar Best Picture winners have received a Golden Globe nomination for Best Screenplay, an 87 percent rate.

The odds are large enough for profit to cover the loss of the other.

One Battle After Another $2.10 Bet365

It Was Just An Accident $4 Sportsbet

83rd Golden Globe Awards  - Film - Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture - Amy Madigan 

The Oscar narrative for Madigan is bewildering (the Weapons star doesn’t have an overdue career story), but the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) may have different ideas.

The other Weapons Golden Globes nomination for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement is also a noteworthy signal of support.

$4.00 Sportsbet

83rd Golden Globe Awards  - Film - Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy - Leonardo DiCaprio

The 2026 Golden Globes nominations have skewed more international and less American. This does not bode positively for the all American tale of Marty Supreme and Timothée Chalamet. The 29 year old actor continues to make campaign missteps, which may reduce the vote count in favour for Leonardo DiCaprio.

Like the rising tide lifts all boats metaphor applies to Teyana Taylor, the support for One Battle After Another and lead DiCaprio carries extra support.

$3.50 Sportsbet

83rd Golden Globe Awards  - Film - Best Motion Picture - Drama - The Secret Agent, Hamnet & Sinners

High conviction Golden Globes bet that the winner will be one of the three here.

Specifically note the surprising Golden Globe victories of Fernanda Torres (8-1 odds) and fifth line (outsider) Argentina, 1985. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association have shown their South American hand previously, and The Secret Agent could pop.

Sinners $3.00 Bet365
Hamnet $1.72 Bet365
The Secret Agent $51 Bet365

83rd Golden Globe Awards  - Film - Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy - Rose Byrne, Emma Stone & Amanda Seyfried

Rose Byrne’s precursor wins have created timely momentum for next month’s Golden Globes. Betting odds for the Australian actress are about right.

There are strong challengers in this category, who are currently overlooked.

Rose Byrne $1.53 Bet365
Emma Stone $7.00 Sportsbet
Amanda Seyfried $21 Bet365

83rd Golden Globe Awards  - Film - Best Original Score - Sirat & One Battle After Another

Sinners is the most overrated film of 2025, and the Coogler hype bubble will burst in January and February.

In the eyes of HFPA, it’s an American story, which will reduce support from the international voting body.

Back an upset with these two masterful soundtracks.

Sirat $17 Sportsbet
One Battle After Another $5.50 Bet365

Tony Coca-Cola

98th Academy Awards  - Best Supporting Actor - Benicio Del Toro  

Despite Del Toro’s low screen time, this supporting performance in One Battle After Another has so far garnered the most awards from early precursors.

$7.50 Pointsbet

98th Academy Awards  - Best Director - Jafar Panahi

A film director going to jail? That’s a powerful story that may overcome the other career narrative of Paul Thomas Anderson.

$15 Pointsbet

98th Academy Awards  - Best Casting - Marty Supreme

All eyes are on One Battle After Another and Sinners. But the eclectic ensemble and strong reviews for the cast of Marty Supreme is being overlooked and underrated.

$13 Sportsbet

83rd Golden Globe Awards  - Film - Best Original Score - One Battle After Another

A play against Ludwig Goransson (Sinners), Jonny Greenwood’s score is a medium conviction bet.

$5.50 Bet365