Oscars 2026 Betting Value: Hidden Gems & Big Odds Plays

Betting markets take shape

Despite minutes long standing ovations for some titles and performances (looking at you, Dwayne Johnson) following fall film festivals at Venice, Telluride, and Toronto, it was One Battle After Another (OBAA) that emerged as the victor once the frothy awards fever settled.

Paul Thomas Anderson’s new opus didn’t even compete in the film festival circuit, and yet jumped to frontrunner status in the Best Picture race. Sportsbooks rate OBAA with a $1.60 or -160 with an implied win Best Picture probability of 60%.

Can OBAA sustain the lead and go all the way to the Oscar stage in March? At this stage of the Oscar race, the betting odds favourite and frontrunner won two of the last five years (Nomadland and Oppenheimer). Audience and critical reception has been universally positive, and the film is strongly positioned heading into Oscar precursor season beginning in January.

OBAA is not without it’s problems, however. The Best Picture frontrunner will invite push back from campaigners over the ensuing weeks. Some will grate against it’s politics, others will not board Paul Thomas Anderson’s unique vision and career narrative.

Hamnet, which is quietly sitting in second position at 5-1 or +400 betting odds, awaits general release in mid December. Expect Best Picture betting odds to tighten for Chloe Zhao’s family drama once awareness increases and critical reception rolls in. Will Best Picture odds for OBAA change when Hamnet releases? Keep a close eye on betting markets, particularly if you’re a Battle bettor and believer.

Only two runners in the Actor and Supporting Actor race?

Betting odds indicate the strong probability that there are only two contenders in the competition for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor.

For the second consecutive year, Timothée Chalamet looms as a strong contender competing against Leonardo di Caprio. Ahead of Marty Supreme’s release next month, Chalamet is short at $1.80 or -125 odds. Expect this price to shorten upon release, and now would be timely to pull the trigger. The 29 year old actor is a betting recommendation by two of our betting trio below.

Meanwhile, will it be the career narrative or a big performance that AMPAS voters will prefer in the Best Supporting Actor race? These are the variables that Oscar campaigners will position for Stellan Skarsgård and Sean Penn, respectively. There’s also pockets of belief in the performance of Paul Mescal for the spoil. Whatever you believe, there are generous betting odds on offer in the Best Supporting Actor category in 2026.

Can any actress challenge Jessie Buckley?

The biggest betting position held by The Professor is Jessie Buckley’s turn in Hamnet. She’s an almost 90% certainty for the Best Actress win, says the Oscar betting analyst.

The flipside to that belief it Rose Byrne, who is a betting recommendation by Tony Coca-Cola and Max Renn, with the thesis explained in the podcast.

Who will plant their Oscar flag for Best Supporting Actress contention?

The Oscar betting market that is widest in possibilities is Best Supporting Actress. Persuasive arguments can be presented for Teyana Taylor, Ariana Grande and even the subtle excellence of Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas’ performance in Sentimental Value.

Betting odds for Grande in Wicked: For Good are generous at $2.25 or +125, which is a bet recommendation, according to The Professor. While Lilleaas is a sleeper and bet at big 10-1 or +900 odds according to the Tony Coca-Cola and Max Renn.

Emmys 2025 betting recap: rivers of profit from this year’s TV awards

For the betting trio comprising The Professor, Tony Coca-Cola and Max Renn, rivers of money flowed nicely.

The breadcrumbs of the Casting winner continue to pay dividends in predicting the winners in Comedy, Limited Series and Drama. The Pitt, which went into the Emmys Awards as the second favourite behind Severance, won Outstanding Casting for a Drama Series at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards the previous week. Then the medical drama proceeded to win the grand prize of Outstanding Drama, which was a profitable betting outcome for Tony Coca-Cola and The Professor.

Other Emmys bets that landed successfully included Stephen Graham at 4-1 and Tramell Tillman. The Severance star became the first African American to win the category of Supporting Actor in a Drama Series.

Katherine La Nasa, who was up against strong betting favourite Kathy Bates, won at juicy 8-1 or +700 odds.

Tony Coca-Cola landed big wins for Stephen Colbert secured at large odds, a win for Britt Lower and it was another green tick for The Studio winning Comedy Series.

Misses included Michelle Williams for The Professor. Betting against Hannah Einbinder was a loss making endeavour as well.

Profit on turnover (POT) final standings for Emmys betting was:

• Max Renn - won 1 from 2 bets, including Stephen Graham at 4-1 betting odds

• The Professor +41% POT

• Tony Coca-Cola +168% POT

Oscars Expert Betting Tips

The Professor

98th Academy Awards  - Best Actor no nomination - Dwayne Johnson

My charts indicate that Johnson has tumbled in contention for the the Best Actor race, declining over 90% between September and October. Now ranked outside of the Best Actor five in 10th position, these odds are too big to pass up.

The Smashing Machine is no chance for a nomination, and it’s star vehicle can return to the tequila business this Oscar season.

$2.10 Sportsbet

98th Academy Awards  - Best Picture nomination - Frankenstein

Previously tipped on our socials at bigger odds of $3.75, Guillermo del Toro’s new film is calculated a 60% probability to secure a nomination among the Best Picture ten contenders.

The betting edge is not huge, but can be backed with medium conviction.

$2.00 TAB

98th Academy Awards  - Best Actor - Timothée Chalamet

Before Oscar betting markets further price in Chalamet fever, now is the time to pull the trigger before Marty Supreme releases in December.

$1.80 Sportsbet

98th Academy Awards  - Best Actress  - Jessie Buckley

The Irish star of Hamnet looms as a strong awards season sweeper, with the Gotham Awards posing the only risk. The Gotham judging panel of five critics may have other ideas, but the precursor is not a reliable indicator of future Oscar glory.

Sportsbooks have also priced in the high probability of an Oscar win, but conviction is strong that Buckley’s Oscar betting odds will plunge as low as $1.10 or an implied win probability of 90% by March 2026. Before Hamnet releases, get on while it’s still a decent price.

$1.36 Sportsbet

98th Academy Awards  - Best Supporting Actress - Ariana Grande

The bookmaker favourite for this category rarely loses. Not since Tilda Swinton’s upset Best Supporting Actress Oscar win for Michael Clayton (17 years ago), has the non favourite won.

But at this stage of the race, four months away from Oscar Sunday, who is the frontrunner? That answer is debatable.

Grande plays a stronger role in the second instalment of the Wicked franchise, and can be backed with low to medium conviction.

$2.25 Sportsbet

98th Academy Awards  - Best Supporting Actor - Stellan Skarsgård

Believe it or not, the frontrunner for this race is priced as the second bookmaker favourite.

These betting odds are incorrect and must be punished with haste. Medium to high conviction.

$2.75 Bet365 and Pointsbet

Max Renn

98th Academy Awards  - Best Picture win - Sinners

The Best Picture Oscar conversation has centred around Hamnet and One Battle After Another, but don’t forget the critical and commercial success of Sinners.

Back Ryan Coogler’s film for the spoil

$8 Sportsbet

98th Academy Awards - Best Supporting Actor - Stellan Skarsgård

The Swedish veteran opened at much lower odds, and these odds are unbelievable.

High conviction before it’s too late and too low.

$2.75 Bet365 and Pointsbet

98th Academy Awards - Best Supporting Actress - Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas

Unlike The Professor, I am backing the fine performance by Lilleaas in Sentimental Value to win.

$10 Sportsbet

98th Academy Awards - Best Actress - Rose Byrne

The market is underrating the win probability for Byrne in her riveting performance. A first time Oscar nomination and win for the Australian veteran? Yes, sign me up.

$13 TAB

Tony Coca-Cola

98th Academy Awards  - Best Actor - Timothée Chalamet  

The Professor and I are aligned on this play.

$1.80 Sportsbet

98th Academy Awards  - Best Actress  - Rose Byrne

Bullish on Byrne and even the possibility of If I Had Legs I'd Kick You to land a surprise Best Picture nomination.

$13 TAB

98th Academy Awards  - Best Supporting Actress - Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas

Big odds on offer and underrated by sportsbooks.

$10 Pointsbet

98th Academy Awards  - Best Best Animated Feature - Arco

Betting against the overwhelming favourite KPop Demon Hunters

$10 Sportsbet

98th Academy Awards  - Best Picture nomination - No Other Choice, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

Mary Bronstein’s If I Had Legs I'd Kick You should be longer than the current odds, but this is still worth a play.

Park Chan-wook’s new film is also underrated by markets and is a betting recommendation.

$3.25 TAB, No Other Choice
$8.00 TAB, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

98th Academy Awards  - Best Supporting Actor - Stellan Skarsgård

The Swedish veteran is a strong conviction bet to win his first Academy Award.

$2.75 Bet365 and Pointsbet