Pre-Venice Premonitions: Oscars 2026 Predictions & Betting Market Watch

With the Venice Film Festival 2025 lineup dropping July 22, the 2026 Oscars race continues — and the betting action begins.

We’re diving headfirst into a minefield of hype, half-baked trailers, market odds, and film festival buzz to forecast which films might disrupt the Oscars betting markets. Some will be gold-plated masterpieces; others, glittery Oscar bait with no legs.

Here’s how the early Oscars 2026 predictions are shaping up — and which titles still offer real value in current Oscars betting odds before Venice reshuffles the field.

Cannes: A Whole Lot of Hype, Not Much Heat

Despite a few pre-festival murmurs, most Cannes premieres didn’t move the needle on the Oscars 2026 betting sheet:

• Die, My Love

• The History of Sound

• Eddington

• The Phoenecian Scheme

• Nouvelle Vague

• Highest 2 Lowest

None made a serious impact. No movement in any major category, not even technicals. But one film did survive the hype.

Sentimental Value: Contender Status Confirmed

Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value emerged as the Cannes standout, with major potential in:

• Best Picture

• Best Actress

• Best Supporting Actor (could Stellan Skarsgård win with his first nomination?)

• Original Screenplay

• Best Director

Expect the Oscars betting markets to react quickly post-Venice. Price is already tightening, but it remains central to all Oscars 2026 early predictions. If you can find any market with Skarsgård in Supporting Actor, go hard.

First nomination, first Oscar win for Sentimental Value star Stellan Skarsgård?

High Conviction Bets Before Venice Hits

After the Hunt

Among the new front-runners for Best Picture.

• TAB has it at $2.50 (+150) for a nomination

• Sportsbet has it at $1.50 (-200)

Excellent value for a film that’s well-positioned on the calendar. High conviction play.

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

The musician biopic formula is in full swing here.

• Sportsbet has it at $2.88 (+188) for a Best Picture nomination — a steal

The trailer ticks the musician biopic boxes, which bodes well for a broad audience reception. Scott Cooper’s latest could be one of the biggest post-Venice price movers if reception is strong.

Hamnet

I still like Hamnet for a range of above-the-line nominations: Picture, Actor, Actress, probably Director too. Less excited about any of its win chances.

Don’t see Mescal scoring double Lead Acting nominations anymore; still maybe a chance for Lead & Supporting noms, with The History of Sound. (Or is he Supporting for Hamnet?)

And with The Bride! now officially pushed to 2026, my double Buckley nomination dream is over. (She could go back-to-back though!)

Other Titles to Track on the Betting Sheet

• The Lost Bus – Very vague teaser, but feels like it could land Picture, Lead Actor, and Supporting Actress nominations.

• It Was Just an Accident – Fresh off the Palme d'Or. Strong International Film contender, with a possible Best Picture breakthrough.

• One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson may attract acting nominations, or even a Picture nod, but win chances are slim.

• Die, My Love – Jennifer Lawrence could still sneak a Lead Actress nomination, but the film overall is fading.

• The trailer for A Big Bold Beautiful Journey looked suitably broad, with plenty of life-affirming, nostalgia-tapping, heartstring-tugging moments. Was it an accurate reflection of the film, or a ruse to downplay director Kogonada’s usual obliqueness? The fantastical elements are front and centre. Really no idea with this one. My instinct says no.

• Warfare – technical nominations possible, but no serious awards buzz.

• Jay Kelly – Backing this for a Picture nomination based on vibes alone.

• Frankenstein – Still an enigma, though the Academy adores GDT. Picture nomination definitely possible; anything more is premature.

• Marty Supreme – Listed at $1.62 (-161) for a Picture nomination on Sportsbet. Too much unknown to bet on yet.

• Bugonia – Lanthimos is exponentially retreating inside his own style, whether the audience likes it or not. Not as convinced as others about its Oscar hopes. No play in any category, for now.

• A House of Dynamite – Kathryn Bigelow’s White House missile thriller. High concept, though does anyone care if The White House blows up right now?

• Avatar 3 – Equal favourite for Picture nomination at $1.50 (-200) with Sentimental Value. Market way off, no chance for a win. How many more of these are still to come?

• Sinners – ($360m+ worldwide box office!) seems to be towards the top of many pundits early Oscar predictions. A vampire film, for Best Picture? Snubbing it for Picture will likely cause a riot, so I guess I’ll throw it in. But no play.

• And even if it makes $1b globally, F1 still has no chance for a Best Picture nomination. There’s nothing wrong with well-made entertainment, but the Oscars are (purportedly) about the art of cinema. There is certainly function in F1, but no art.

Betting Sheet Recap: Oscars 2026 Predictions Markets

Where you should consider playing now, before Venice upends the board:

• ✅ After the Hunt – Bet the nomination at $2.50 (+150)

• ✅ Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere – $2.88 (+188) is exceptional pre-festival value for a Best Picture nomination

• ✅ Sentimental Value – Skarsgård is the big play

• ❌ Marty Supreme / Bugonia – Wait for festival reviews

• 🛑 Sinners / Warfare / F1 – No action

• 🔎 Watchlist: Hamnet, Frankenstein, The Lost Bus, Jay Kelly