Top 5 Oscars pundits from the last 5 years

Who is the top performing pundit, the ultimate soothsayer in the mystical multiverse of entertainment awards predictions?

Opinions are plentiful. Predictions are abundant. And the fine folk at Gold Derby rank and quantify any and every pundit year-by-year.

But what about an all-time ranking? Historically, which Gold Derby expert rates best for Oscar prognostication?

We crunched the numbers over the last five years of Oscar nominations and wins. The combination of nominations and wins is key because it provides a larger sample size:

• For nominations, there is a choice of 120 predictions. (Ten slots for Best Picture, plus five slots each for the remaining 22 categories.) Overall, a far more challenging exercise, as the field is not yet set.

• Then obviously, you must select the winner in each of the 23 categories.

• Therefore, for one Academy Awards season, there are 143 data points (120 nominations plus 23 winners.) Multiply this across the last five years, and you have over 700 data points. This is a large enough sample size to be statistically significant.

The stats don’t lie. The stats reveal all.

The criteria used to calculate the Best Gold Derby expert over the last 5 years 

The formula used to calculate the top pundit was: accumulative total % across each data category (wins + nominations) divided by the number of corresponding of awards.

e.g. nominations prediction rate % for Oscars 2023 + win prediction rate % for Oscars 2022 / 2 = average of Oscar 2023 season.

In the above scenario, this is a calculation for one year. For the breadth and depth of 5 years, this would be: nominations % + win % divided by 10.

Where a Gold Derby pundit was listed on the leaderboard for four years, the calculation would be divided by 8, or four years of nominations plus wins.

A predictions pundit to watch

Matt Neglia from Next Best Picture is a new entrant to the Gold Derby scene and is on the watchlist with a 77.5% Oscars nominations category prediction score.

With a sample size of three (Oscars 2024 nominations, Oscars 2023 nominations and wins), we will continue to monitor the performance of Neglia and other pundits.

Who dropped out of the top 5

Sasha Stone, who ranked third last year with an impressive 77.99%, drops out of the top 5 due to a 71.67% Oscars 2024 nominations predictions accuracy.

Also falling out the prestigious top 5 was Pete Hammond. With an overall predictions accuracy of 74.8%, the awards columnist predicted a 75% accuracy for this year’s Academy Awards nominations.

#5 Anne Thompson - 76.11% (IndieWire)

A new entrant to the final five is Editor at Large at IndieWire, Anne Thompson, who topped the predictions list for Oscars 2024 accuracy with an impressive 77.50%

Thompson is unafraid to zag while the awards consensus is zigging.

#4 Joyce Eng - 76.18% (Gold Derby)

Joyce Eng can peer into the future. There’s an undeniable gift here, also evidenced by the Senior Editor of Gold Derby leading the Emmys pundits accuracy for the last 5 years.

#3 Scott Mantz - 76.61% (MovieMantz)

Ranked second at least year’s top five evaluation, Mantz continues excellence in predictions accuracy.

#2 Peter Travers - 78.47% (ABC)

Travers ascends in the rankings compared with 2023, when the movie critic for ABC was in fifth position.

#1 Wilson Morales - 78.87% (BlackFilmandTV.com)

Founder and Editor at BlackFilmandTV.com, Morales is the outright leader for the second year running. A deep bow of respect for leading all entertainment awards punditry.

Proving his skill is no fluke, and not only adept at the Academy Awards, Morales his 12/12 at the 39th Independent Spirit Awards.

What Morales predicts, matters.