Who are the top 5 Oscars pundits from the last 3 years?
Opinions are abundant. But who can actually be relied upon for Oscars futures? Who has the prediction pedigree that has stood the test of time?
Drawing upon data from the leaderboards and scores from Gold Derby’s Oscar Experts, the numbers tell a story. We last examined this three years ago; it’s time for a refresh.
Over the last three years of Oscar nominations and wins, the data has been crunched to present the latest leaderboard of who, on average, consistently ranks as the highest performing prognosticator with the highest percentage accuracy.
For nominations, there is a choice of 125 predictions: Ten slots for Best Picture, plus five slots each for the remaining 24 categories.
In phase one, nominations are more challenging (125 data points), as the field is not yet set.
In phase two, the winner is selected in each of the 24 categories.
In total, for a single Oscar season, there are 149 data points: 125 nominations plus 24 winners.
Multiply this across the last three years, and you have over 400 data points. This is a large enough sample size to be statistically significant.
The statistics don’t lie. The statistics reveal all.
The criteria used to calculate the Best Gold Derby Oscar expert over the last 3 years The formula used to calculate the top pundit is: accumulative total % across each data category (wins + nominations) divided by the number of corresponding awards.
Here’s how it works:
2023 - phase one Oscar nominations (120 data inputs) plus phase two Oscar wins (23 data inputs) predictions = 143 data inputs
2024 - phase one Oscar nominations (120 data inputs) plus phase two Oscar wins (23 data inputs) predictions = 143 data inputs
2025 - phase one Oscar nominations (120 data inputs) plus phase two Oscar wins (23 data inputs) predictions = 143 data inputs
2026 - phase one Oscar nominations, with new Casting category = 125 data inputs
Total - 554 data inputs or 554 prediction opportunities.
The average of each % accuracy across nominations and wins is calculated. For example, in the scenario below:
2023 - Oscar nominations 50%, Oscar wins 70% (2 data sets)
2024 - Oscar nominations 60%, Oscar wins 80% (2 data sets)
2025 - Oscar nominations 20%, Oscar wins 90% (2 data sets)
2026 - Oscar nominations 75% (1 data set)
Total 7 data sets
Calculation = (50%+70%+60%+80%+20%+90%+75%)/7 = 64% average
For consideration and for criteria to be ranked in this exercise, only Oscar pundits who have over 500 data inputs over a time horizon of 3+ years make the cut.
Who dropped out of the top 5?In the 2024 top 5 was Peter Travers (ABC News), who had a prediction score of 69.6%.
The Oscar review period applied for this analysis was 2022-25 Oscars (nominations and wins) plus the nominations of 2026.
Honourable mentionsPredictions pundits to watch are Cole Jaeger at 79.3% and Mark Johnson at 74.9%.
As new additions to the Gold Derby Expert panel, only limited data is available. Therefore, the calculation applied to Jaeger and Johnson was based on:
2025 - phase one Oscar nominations (120 data inputs) and phase two Oscar wins (23 data inputs) predictions = 143 data inputs
2026 - phase one Oscar nominations, with new Casting category = 125 data inputs
Total 268 data inputs or 268 prediction opportunities.
Jaeger (The Oscar Expert), has been on the watch list for a while, with a consistently high prediction accuracy. In the 2025 Oscar season, Jaeger’s numbers were striking:
79% across 120 nomination slots
83% win accuracy across 23 categories
Johnson (The Awards Alchemist from AwardsWatch), is also new to the calculation landscape on Gold Derby and is quickly banking credibility to be taken seriously with Oscar projections.
For Jaeger and Johnson to enter consideration for the top 5, a greater sample size of over 500 will be required.
Dishonourable mentions In Human Resources at the Penske Media Corporation, it may be it may be time for a Performance Improvement Plan for Clayton Davis (Variety) and Scott Feinberg (The Hollywood Reporter).
For both Feinberg and Davis, the two senior awards writers at the two leading industry publications, there’s nowhere to hide:
Clayton Davis 70.3% from Oscar season 2022-25 plus Oscars 2026 nominations only (554 data inputs or 554 prediction opportunities)
Scott Feinberg 71.0% from Oscar season 2025 plus Oscars 2026 nominations only (268 data inputs or 268 prediction opportunities)
Also joining lacklustre prediction scores from the Variety stable are Jazz Tangcay and Jenelle Riley. All three entertainment reporters from Variety are not solid Oscars predictors.
We need to talk about ClaytonWith a 70% Oscar prediction accuracy, Clayton Davis has had some outlandish takes over the years. Here’s a sample of the greatest hits:
In the Best Director Oscar race of 2024, Davis wrote on X that Christopher Nolan had met his challenger, Ava DuVernay. That year, Nolan swept, winning every single major precursor before claiming the Directing Academy Award. DuVernay, on the other hand, was not nominated for Best Director, won a single precursor (from the African American Film Critics Association) compared to Nolan’s 43, and her film Origin secured zero Oscar nominations.
When Gladiator II was being pushed for Best Picture honours by both Feinberg and Davis, both were scolded for their stupidity by IndieWire Editor at Large Anne Thompson. In a catalogue of embarrassment, the prediction of director Ridley Scott winning Best Director delivered a donut, not even a nomination in the category. Gladiator II also failed to secure a Best Picture nomination.
Of course, it’s easy to cherry pick wrong predictions. The betting trio behind Lights Camera What’s the Action have had some wild swings and misses over the years. What’s different about this website, however, is that our focus is less on predicting winners, more on betting on winners at the right odds, for the right price. Typically, over a nine month stretch, we will be betting on a number of contenders in the same Oscar category. We don’t care who wins, so long as profits flow.
Returning to the microscope on Davis: What’s notable is the degree to which this professional entertainment awards reporter, loses any semblance of objectivity, rationality, leaning instead into predictions that promote a personal and political agenda. This biased lens through which the awards race is viewed is misguided at best, irresponsible at worst.
This year, so misinformed are the Sinners infused predictions by the Chief Awards Editor, so misleading is the anonymous ballot content by Variety, that Best Picture Polymarket users are actively trading against the prognostications.
Davis’s 70% prediction rate might not sound so bad in isolation. But let’s compare the figure to our as-yet-uncrowned number one Oscar pundit:
Davis is 11% weaker than the current Oscars prediction king (78%/70% = 11%)
Multiplied by an Oscar season comprising 149 data points, an average of 70% will produce 104/149 correct predictions
Multiplied by an Oscar season comprising 149 data points, an average of 78% will produce 116/149 correct predictions.
That’s 12 more correct predictions
Now, let’s look at Davis’s 2026 Oscar predictions. He is planting his flag firmly on the Sinners hill with predictions that include:
Sinners to win Best Picture - sportsbooks have it priced as an outside 25% win probability
Ryan Coogler to win Best Director - sportsbooks have it priced as a 10% win probability, where Paul Thomas Anderson sits at 90-95%. In Directing, Coogler has failed to win a single major precursor prize.
Delroy Lindo to win Best Supporting Actor. Like Coogler, Lindo has not won a single major precursor award.
If Sinners overperforms - against the odds, against the wisdom of crowds, against data informed decision making, Davis will no doubt emerge as the contrarian genius who saw the Oscar race differently from other Oscar experts.
Can Sinners deliver these historic wins? In percentage likelihood, no. But let’s see how the cards roll out.
A perspective on Erik AndersonBefore presenting the leaderboard, the skill and wisdom of Erik Anderson’s Oscar commentary and punditry should be noted.
The content from the AwardsWatch team is the best of any trade media who cover entertainment awards.
Unfortunately, with Anderson not listed among Gold Derby’s Oscar Experts, analysis of his prediction accuracy was out of scope for this article.
Nevertheless, Anderson’s knowledge and awards experience is highly credible, informed by data and not by junk narratives.
The top 5 Oscars pundits from the last 3 years#5 Scott Mantz - 73.9% (MovieMantz) Mantz consistently ranks among the best performing pundits, and an 80% nominations accuracy in 2025 secured another top position for the entertainment writer.
#4 Wilson Morales - 74.6% (BlackFilmandTV.com)When we last published the best Oscar pundits rankings, Wilson Morales was number one. But it’s tough at the top and the Founder and Editor of BlackFilmandTV has slid in the current rankings to fourth position.
#3 Joyce Eng - 74.8% (Entertainment Weekly)With a move into Entertainment Weekly, there is sadly less podcast content from Joyce Eng. However, this has not changed the Senior News Editor’s reputation as one of the greatest awards predictors in the land.
Among Eng’s greatest gifts is knowing the nuances of each individual voting body. Each awards group are different organisms, with their own specific preferences. Eng consistently taps into this knowledge, correctly predicting outliers like Keri Russell, who won the Actor Award (SAG) Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series for her role in The Diplomat. Russell went into the SAG Actor Awards as an extreme outsider, with sportsbooks rating the American actress a 10% (+900) implied probability to win.
#2 Anne Thompson - 75.5% (IndieWire)Anne Thompson’s awards coverage experience has stood the test of time. The veteran consistently ranks among the top performing Oscar pundits, and has risen to second position since our last ranking in 2024.
Thompson is unafraid to call BS from the group think that emerges from her Penske Media colleagues.
#1 Matt Neglia - 78.87% (Next Best Picture)Moving from someone to watch in 2024, Owner and Editor In Chief of Next Best Picture, Matt Neglia has delivered consistently high prediction scores with Oscar nominations for 2026, the pundit ranked top in Gold Derby’s leaderboard, with an 83% accuracy score.
Neglia combines a winning blend as a cinephile and deep knowledge of film award history. He and the Next Best Picture team have risen to become one of the most respected alternative film award media properties.