Festival Fallout: Oscars 2026 Predictions and Emmys Betting Odds
Oscars betting odds & markets
Every September, the conversation around the Oscars takes a decisive turn. After the premieres in Venice, Telluride, and Toronto, films that were once whispers suddenly become frontrunners, and others quietly exit the race.
For those tracking the Oscars 2026 predictions markets, this period is the most valuable window of the season. It’s the time when Oscars betting odds move fastest, creating both opportunity and risk.
Unlike the casual punditry you’ll find on Reddit or mainstream entertainment blogs, Lights Camera What’s the Action is built around data, probability, and betting discipline. Our job isn’t to say what we hope will happen, but to identify where the market is wrong — and how you can profit from it.
After the Hunt Bows OutBack in May, After the Hunt emerged with buzz and bookmaker respect. But in the wake of Venice screenings, that optimism has collapsed. What once looked like a sure-fire Best Picture betting sheet inclusion now looks like a longshot. Odds that opened short have already drifted, and unless guild support surprises later in the season, this film may end up being an expensive lesson for anyone who jumped too early.
Hamnet Emerges as the FrontrunnerIf one film has stepped into that vacuum, it’s Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet. Based on Maggie O’Farrell’s acclaimed novel, the adaptation has impressed critics and played to festival audiences with real emotional power.
The betting markets have taken notice: Hamnet is now the most heavily backed Best Picture contender, with betting odds reduced by 50%+.
In terms of Oscars 2026 early predictions, Hamnet looks set not only for a nomination but for potential dominance.
A House of DynamiteThe surprise package of the season so far is Kathryn Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite. A tense White House thriller, the film has been received more warmly than expected. Bigelow already has Oscar pedigree (The Hurt Locker, Zero Dark Thirty), and this film lands with political relevance that could connect strongly with Academy voters.
Betting markets were slow to react — opening at $1.95 TAB (-105) for a Best Picture nomination — which savvy punters have already snapped up. Expect those odds to tighten as we head into precursor season.
The Smashing Machine: A Classic Oscar NarrativeFew moments in the festival season generated more attention than The Smashing Machine. Starring Dwayne Johnson as MMA fighter Mark Kerr and Emily Blunt as his wife, the A24-backed drama combines prestige filmmaking with Hollywood star power.
The film’s standing ovation and Johnson’s very public tears made headlines worldwide. For Oscar bettors, this is a gift. Emotional narrative arcs matter. Just ask Brendan Fraser, who wept his way to the podium in 2023 for The Whale.
Add in A24’s campaign savvy — remember their work on Everything Everywhere All at Once — and The Smashing Machine instantly became a top contender. For markets tracking Oscars betting odds Best Actor, this is a category to watch.
Is A24 holding back it's winning Oscar card?With A24 still holding back Marty Supreme until December, expect more late-season disruption to Oscars betting odds.
Other titles still in playThe Lost Bus has attracted interest thanks to its topical resonance (LA fires), currently trading at long odds ($7.00 TAB / +600 for Best Picture nomination).
It Was Just an Accident, Jafar Panahi’s latest, could break through in the International Feature Film category and possibly sneak into Best Picture. $3.00 TAB (+200) nomination odds suggest it’s in the mix.
Sinners, Ryan Coogler’s vampire drama, continues to polarise. Some pundits hold firm with it as their number one pick. The lesson from Everything Everywhere All at Once is simple: ignore audience traction at your peril. Covering at $8.00 (+700) is a defensive play many sharp bettors are making.
Emmys 2025: From Creative Arts to Primetime
While Hollywood gears up for the Oscars, the television world is focused on the Emmys 2025 betting odds. The Creative Arts Emmy Awards often provide clues to how the Primetime awards will unfold, and this year’s results delivered notable shifts.
The Pitt won Outstanding Casting for a Drama Series, a category that has predicted the Drama Series winner in 7 of the last 10 years. This could challenge Severance, which remains the sportsbook favourite.
Hacks and The Studio continue to dominate the comedy landscape, with stars Julianne Nicholson and Bryan Cranston converting Creative Arts wins into Primetime momentum.
Andor collected multiple technical awards, raising the question: can a sci-fi contender pull off an upset in Outstanding Drama Series?
These outcomes matter because sportsbooks adjust their Emmys betting odds after precursor awards, and smart bettors will spot “value plays” before the wider market reacts.
Emmys and Oscars Expert Betting Tips
The Professor77th Emmy Awards - Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series - Catherine O'HaraThe enthusiasm for Hannah Einbinder to (finally) win her Emmy is misguided.
An Einbinder victory is not in the bag, as many pundits would have you believe for the Hacks star. O’Hara looms as a strong threat, and is significantly underrated by the market.
$7.00 Bet365
77th Emmy Awards - Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series - Parker Posey The toughest category to predict a winner, despite the short odds on offer for Carrie Coon.
Veteran performer Parker Posey could be rewarded for her big showy The White Lotus performance.
$7.00 Bet365
98th Academy Awards - Best Picture nomination - A House of DynamiteBigelow is back! And cinema is better for it. Topical with Oscar pedigree, this action thriller has landed positively with fall festival audiences.
Rated a 60% probability of securing a Best Picture nomination, A House of Dynamite is generously priced and can be bet with medium conviction
$1.95 TAB
98th Academy Awards - Best Picture nomination - The Lost BusLow conviction. A heroic ode to the LA fires, the memory will be fresh and relevant for AMPAS voters.
$7 TAB
98th Academy Awards - Best Picture win - HamnetChloe Zhao’s adaptation is the hottest betting ticket this awards season and must be consumed with urgency.
Get ready for the new frontrunner to gather steam. Best Actress, Best DIrector, Bes Adapted Screenplay and Best Picture are a strong possibility.
This is my highest conviction bet in a long time. The distance between Hamnet and others is considerable, and the gap will widen once the precursors kick off in January.
$5 Pointsbet
98th Academy Awards - Best Picture win - SinnersKnowing thyself is critical for successful betting and profit making. Three years ago at the 2023 Academy Awards, self knowledge was an expensive lesson, as I refused to allow Everything Everywhere All at Once into the Best Picture race.
Too committed to The Fabelmans, it was a loss making enterprise that year.
Despite my distaste for Sinners, I am applying the lesson and taking cover and insurance on Ryan Coogler’s film to win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars. It’s astonishing that pundits are holding firm with their top spot prediction of the vampire film.
Time to take the medicine, time to take insurance cover if this happens.
$8 Pointsbet
Max Renn
77th Emmy Awards - Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series - Stephen Graham Still an attractive price, and confidence is high that it will be positive night for the Adolescence team.
$4.00 Stephen Graham
The Game Awards - Game of the Year - Hollow Knight: Silksong & Death Stranding 2: On The BeachThis is a play against the favourite, Clair Obscur: Expedition 33.
In development for eight years, SIlksong has released this month to excellent critical acclaim. There’s enormous affection for this Australian made game
$15 TAB Death Stranding 2: On The Beach
$5.50 TAB Hollow Knight: Silksong
Tony Coca-Cola
77th Emmy Awards - Outstanding Drama Series - Severance Medium to large conviction. Compared to The Pitt, Ben Stiller’s show had more penetration, more impact and more buzz.
$1.50 Neds
77th Emmy Awards - Outstanding Drama Series - Only Murders in the Building A just in case bet, low conviction.
$51 TAB
77th Emmy Awards - Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series - Adam ScottUnderrated by sports books, Adam Scott could ride the tailwinds of a positive night for the Severance team.
$5 TAB
77th Emmy Awards - Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series - Britt Lower Just in case there is a Severance sweep.
$3.50 TAB
77th Emmy Awards - Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series - Stephen Graham Medium to large conviction at big odds.
$4.00 Bet365
77th Emmy Awards - Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series - Martin Short $6.50 TAB
77th Emmy Awards - Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series - Harrison Ford Medium to large conviction for the veteran actor’s first Emmys win.
$2.20 Bet365
77th Emmy Awards - Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series - Catherine O'Hara & Liza Colon-ZayasEchoing the betting strategy by The Professor, this is a play against the sportsbook favourite Hannah Einbinder. Medium conviction.
Catherine O'Hara $7.00 Bet365
Liza Colon-Zayas $17.00 Bet365
77th Emmy Awards - Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series - Tramell TillmanLarge conviction.
$2.50 Bet365
77th Emmy Awards - Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series - Katherine LaNasaSmall to medium conviction.
$8 Bet365
98th Academy Awards - Best Picture nomination - It Was Just An Accident$3 TAB
98th Academy Awards - Best Picture win - HamnetNo other film is jumping out to compete for the new frontrunner to win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars. Hamnet could go all the way to Oscar Sunday.
$5 Pointsbet