Post Cannes: New Oscars 2027 predictions
Some thoughts on the Oscar race after the Cannes craziness:
Palme d’Or winner Fjord is strong, but it is not undeniableCristian Mungiu’s Fjord won the Palme d’Or (seven in a row for Neon!), though it was far from the obvious winner. It did well critically (82 Metacritic from 18 reviews), but not spectacularly.
Stan and Reinsve were strong, but not undeniable. The buzziest aspect of the film is probably its liberal vs. conservative theme, which should generate some general interest.
Will Fjord secure any other nominations outside of International Film? Director or Picture seems unlikely, at this stage. Original Screenplay is probably its best chance, but I’m not yet convinced it’s a genuine contender.
Expect the Academy to favour Pawlikowski againI could see Paweł Pawlikowski’s Fatherland breaking through more than Fjord, as the Academy clearly adores his work (Ida, Cold War).
Sandra Hüller looks good for an Actress nomination, but is she Lead or Supporting? Hüller is definitely a Lead in Rose; perhaps a double Lead Actress nomination? I tried this last year with Paul Mescal for Hamnet & The History of Sound; let’s roll the dice again!
An International Film contender emergesAll of a Sudden – the most ironic title ever given to a Hamaguchi film – did well also. I thought Drive My Car would suffer due to its length, but four Oscar nominations and one win proved me well wrong.
Definitely a contender in International Film. An Original Screenplay nomination looks good too.
International Film contenders fadeKore-eda’s Sheep In The Box is a bust, as is Farhadi’s Parallel Tales. Both unlikely to snag an International Film nomination, let alone any crossover nominations. (That made quite a dent in my early predictions!)
Na Hong-jin’s Hope exploded, for good and bad reasons. (It actually opened as bookie favourite for Palme d’Or.) Though I can’t wait to see it, it’s likely too bonkers to make any real awards noise.
Can Rami Malek return to the Oscar clubhouse? The one performance that really popped was Rami Malek in Ira Sachs’ The Man I Love. Javier Bardem in The Beloved also made some noise. But I’d lean heavier towards Malek, definitely in line for a Lead Actor nomination.
Can James Gray break through? Reactions to James Gray’s Paper Tiger were fair. Adam Driver is probably the film’s best chance, for a Supporting Actor nomination, but still unlikely.
Does Gray finally get an Original Screenplay nomination? Maybe the film is too gangster-ish overall to seriously register.
Netflix backs The Black Ball People lost their minds over The Black Ball too. It’s been picked up by Netflix, which ensures a potentially wider viewing audience. Will the sugar hit will wear off fast?
Other Oscar projections: I still think pundits are way overvaluing Wild Horse Nine. But I’m happy to throw Steve Buscemi in for a Supporting Actor nomination.
Some good early reactions to No One Cares, the new film from Jesse Eisenberg with Julianne Moore and Paul Giamatti. Supporting Actor could be stacked with some great character actors this year.
Michael gets nothing.
Ink has been pushed to a 2027 release date, so will not feature in this year’s awards season.
2027 Oscars Betting Odds & Market Watch
Best Picture - Post Cannes 2026 PredictionsLooking at the Oscars betting market, predicted winners are underlined.
Being Heumann
Cry To Heaven
Digger
Dune: Part Three
Disclosure Day
Fatherland
Josephine
The Odyssey
Saturn Return
The Social Reckoning
Oscar Best Director predictions - Post Cannes 2026 Paweł Pawlikowski - Fatherland
Tom Ford – Cry To Heaven
Christopher Nolan – The Odyssey
Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Three
Aaron Sorkin – The Social Reckoning
Oscar Best Actor predictions - Post Cannes 2026 Tom Cruise - Digger
Matt Damon – The Odyssey
Rami Malek – The Man I Love
Charles Melton - Saturn Return
John Turturro - The Only Living Pickpocket In New York
Oscar Best Actress predictions - Post Cannes 2026 Sandra Hüller - Rose
Sandra Hüller - Fatherland
Ruth Madeley – Being Heumann
Mikey Madison – The Social Reckoning
Julianne Moore – No One Cares
Oscar Best Supporting Actor predictions - Post Cannes 2026 Steve Buscemi – Wild Horse Nine
Paul Giamatti – No One Cares
John Goodman - Digger
Jeremy Strong – The Social Reckoning
Channing Tatum – Josephine
Oscar Best Supporting Actress predictions - Post Cannes 2026 Caitriona Balfe - A Long Winter
Anne Hathaway - The Odyssey
Sandra Hüller - Digger
Wumni Mosaku – The Social Reckoning
Octavia Spencer – Death Of A Salesman